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[personal profile] redrisingphoenix
I was thinking today about which clue was genuine between Excel and Taro.

Excel's clue is pretty obvious - Ari is Young Verdant, I'm... well, you know. ugh. Please don't tell Haine. Which would leave Taro as the wolf. My problem with it was that it was too obvious - why would the shepherd give us such an easy clue?

Taro's clue... doesn't really help anyone. It tells us something we knew all along - the Princess is a wolf. My dream already pretty much said that it was the Princess and the Weed, since it's not Ari or Lady Huang.

Thing is, the Shepherd is there to even the odds, right? When we were about to vote Ari out, he gave a second clue about him to Soushi and me and Taro figured out that he was actually a safe and not Bob. Because if we'd have voted Ari out then, we would've lost.

And now, if we vote another sheep out, we'll lose. For a minute, I almost thought we *had* lost - I thought there were only six people left (2 wolves, 4 sheep - when the last sheep got killed tonight, even if we got a wolf, we'd still be at the original number of wolves in the game - we'd lose). But there's seven. We can still pull this off, and that's why Excel's clue was so friggin' easy.

So yes, Excel, I believe you. I don't think you're a wolf. But we're pretty sure Taro is keeping Ari alive because he thinks he can convince Ari of his innocence all the way to the end. If I oppose him publicly, he could possibly decide to kill me off. So I'm going to play it like I believe Taro above Excel in the public post and in Taro's post - yes, he locked a post to me and Ari.

So our plan is to vote out Tetra tonight, since we're almost sure she's the Princess, and Taro tomorrow. Anyone got anything else?

Date: 2005-09-23 07:11 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile]
You do believe me! And I was just about to throw another hissy fit, too!

Date: 2005-09-23 07:17 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile]

That, and the Shepherd said at the top of his last post that the sheep weren't doing well - at the time, I didn't think about what it meant, but when I added up how long we had... Yeah, we're about to lose if we don't pull together.

So he evened the odds with your dream.

Date: 2005-09-23 07:26 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile]

So even if we're goin' for Tetra, should we still split up our votes with Taro to make sure nobody innocent goes up on the choppin' block?

Date: 2005-09-23 08:44 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile]
Vote for whoever you like in the suspicion poll - no one's going to see it. Just so long as Tetra goes tonight and Taro goes tomorrow night.

But yeah - it would look funny if we all voted together - he might panic. Good idea.

Date: 2005-09-23 09:19 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile]
Aww, shucks. T'warn't nothin'.

Date: 2005-09-23 07:13 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile]
No, that jibes nicely with what my own suspicions are. It's interesting to note that Taro claims to have had a dream even though he's most likely a wolf; if that's true, the Shepherd truly plays no favorites.

Date: 2005-09-23 07:16 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile]
See, what Ari and I figure is that he's selling out the other wolves - he pointed us to Bob (even though I'd come to the same conclusion myself) and after that started encouraging us to go after Tetra. He's sacrificing the other wolves so that we'll believe him when he says he's not one. All we have to do is vote out one more sheep, and he's won.

As for his dream, we think he's faking so that we'll worry more about chasing the Princess than about looking at him.

Date: 2005-09-23 07:20 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile]
That makes sense. And is admirably cold-blooded, to boot. I prefer not listening to what people say about their own innocence; people will say anything to remove suspicion from themselves.

Date: 2005-09-23 08:46 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile]
I'll listen, if they have an explanation that I think makes sense. I wasn't listening to Ari for a while because he wasn't giving me any solid proof that he wasn't a wolf - really, there's not any solid proof until about this point in the game.

But yeah. Sneaky of him, huh?


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