I can see you've thought quite a lot about this, and your theory is very interesting. However, I'm not entirely convinced in regards to Claire.
We have gotten one wolf already. I think it's rather more likely that it was Hiromi than Seth. Hiromi had a one-in-three chance (one-in-two for me, of course) of being a wolf; Seth was a completely random choice. I'm also fairly certain that Claire was the third person indicated in the first clue, not Seth. The shepherd said he worked with what he was given, and he had no way of knowing Seth's last name until after the clue was given out. Therefore, if Hiromi was a wolf, Claire can't be. I could be wrong -- Seth could be the wolf that we got, or she could be the third person in the first clue, either of which would make it possible for Claire to be a wolf. Even so, I don't find either of those possibilities quite as likely.
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timeasmymeasure
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Date: 2007-09-15 03:35 am (UTC)We have gotten one wolf already. I think it's rather more likely that it was Hiromi than Seth. Hiromi had a one-in-three chance (one-in-two for me, of course) of being a wolf; Seth was a completely random choice. I'm also fairly certain that Claire was the third person indicated in the first clue, not Seth. The shepherd said he worked with what he was given, and he had no way of knowing Seth's last name until after the clue was given out. Therefore, if Hiromi was a wolf, Claire can't be. I could be wrong -- Seth could be the wolf that we got, or she could be the third person in the first clue, either of which would make it possible for Claire to be a wolf. Even so, I don't find either of those possibilities quite as likely.