I can see you've thought quite a lot about this, and your theory is very interesting. However, I'm not entirely convinced in regards to Claire.
We have gotten one wolf already. I think it's rather more likely that it was Hiromi than Seth. Hiromi had a one-in-three chance (one-in-two for me, of course) of being a wolf; Seth was a completely random choice. I'm also fairly certain that Claire was the third person indicated in the first clue, not Seth. The shepherd said he worked with what he was given, and he had no way of knowing Seth's last name until after the clue was given out. Therefore, if Hiromi was a wolf, Claire can't be. I could be wrong -- Seth could be the wolf that we got, or she could be the third person in the first clue, either of which would make it possible for Claire to be a wolf. Even so, I don't find either of those possibilities quite as likely.
Ahh, I forgot to apologize to you, didn't I? I'm sorry for voting on you the other day - I really thought it was you over Lady Hiromi or Lady Claire. But I'm usually suspicious of everyone, at least a little bit, when I'm a sheep. I only made this post, 'cause I was sure I knew who the remaining two wolves were.
And, well.... look how that went.
I think it's Sanosuke - he's off the lock, by the way.
Oh, don't bother apologizing. Sheep are supposed to be suspicious of everyone, since anyone could be a wolf. And I expected people to be especially suspicious of me, just on the grounds that I was around so little on the first two days.
Well, Ned's been the most honestly helpful person in the game so far, and I know I'm a sheep. Sanosuke's also not been talking as much as he normally does - I also find it funny that he asked me to explain my reasoning for both Lady Claire and Naesala.
And I believe he's the vote on me just now, unless that's you? And if Ned's not voted yet, you'd have to be the fourth vote on Naesala.
I was on you, because back when you were accusing Claire, I was suspicious of you. I'm somewhat more convinced of your innocence now, though, so I think I'll move it either to Naesala or Sanosuke.
no subject
Date: 2007-09-15 03:35 am (UTC)We have gotten one wolf already. I think it's rather more likely that it was Hiromi than Seth. Hiromi had a one-in-three chance (one-in-two for me, of course) of being a wolf; Seth was a completely random choice. I'm also fairly certain that Claire was the third person indicated in the first clue, not Seth. The shepherd said he worked with what he was given, and he had no way of knowing Seth's last name until after the clue was given out. Therefore, if Hiromi was a wolf, Claire can't be. I could be wrong -- Seth could be the wolf that we got, or she could be the third person in the first clue, either of which would make it possible for Claire to be a wolf. Even so, I don't find either of those possibilities quite as likely.
no subject
Date: 2007-09-15 03:40 am (UTC)And yeah, I think Lady Hiromi's the wolf we did get, actually. Lady Seth just sorta didn't do much of anything.
Although Naesala's eagerness to point the finger at her and reluctance to place a vote on her is ringing alarm bells to me.
no subject
Date: 2007-09-15 03:57 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2007-09-15 03:59 am (UTC)If that's the case, then I'm a huge idiot.
no subject
Date: 2007-09-15 04:27 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2007-09-15 04:30 am (UTC)And, well.... look how that went.
I think it's Sanosuke - he's off the lock, by the way.
no subject
Date: 2007-09-15 04:40 am (UTC)Hmm. Do you mind explaining why you think that?
no subject
Date: 2007-09-15 04:48 am (UTC)And I believe he's the vote on me just now, unless that's you? And if Ned's not voted yet, you'd have to be the fourth vote on Naesala.
no subject
Date: 2007-09-15 05:05 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2007-09-15 05:11 am (UTC)And if you hadn't point that out, I'd probably still be acting like a dumbass. Thank you.
no subject
Date: 2007-09-15 05:19 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2007-09-15 04:54 am (UTC)